By David Morgan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said on Tuesday that
security gains in Iraq are increasingly durable but warned that that methods
which helped reduce violence there may not work in Afghanistan.
Petraeus, the former commander in Iraq who is credited by U.S. officials with
saving the country from sectarian war, emphasized that progress in Iraq remains
fragile and reversible despite an 80 percent drop in violence.
"But I have to say that the fragility is less," he said in a speech to the
Association of the U.S. Army, a nonprofit group that supports the armed
service.
"And with each passing day there is a little bit less of that fragility as
progress takes on a slightly more enduring nature," he said.
It was an unusually upbeat assessment of the situation from the normally
cautious Petraeus, who turned over command in Iraq to Gen. Ray Odierno last
month.
Petraeus was the main architect of a 2007 build-up in U.S. forces known as
the surge, which has been given much credit for reducing violence
levels.
Violence also fell after Sunni tribesmen joined U.S. forces against al Qaeda
and after radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr declared a ceasefire for his
militia.
"The people realize more and more that
they do not want to return to the ethno-sectarian violence that had their
country on the brink of civil war," Petraeus said.
Petraeus will begin overseeing U.S. operations in Afghanistan on October 31
when he takes over U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military
interests across the Middle East and into south and central Asia.
EVER-CHANGING INSURGENCIES
But the general said methods used to quell violence in Iraq may not be
transferable to the war in Afghanistan, where attacks by the Taliban and other
militant groups is surging.
"What worked in Iraq may not work in Afghanistan" because of the unique and
ever-changing nature of insurgencies. "What works in Baghdad today will not work
in Baghdad tomorrow. What works in Baghdad may not work in Falluja," he
said.
The drop in violence in Iraq has allowed the Bush administration to announce
the withdrawal of 8,000 troops from the country by early next year and to begin
moving other forces to Afghanistan.
But with the danger of renewed violence heightened by the approach of
provincial elections in January, the United States is unlikely to begin sending
thousands more soldiers sought by NATO commander in Afghanistan, David
McKiernan, until next spring or summer.
There are currently 155,000 U.S. forces in Iraq and 33,000 in Afghanistan,
13,000 of which are under NATO command.
Petraeus said the flow of foreign fighters from Syria to Sunni insurgent
groups including al Qaeda in Iraq has declined to 10-20 people a month from a
height of 160.
U.S. troops have also recently seen a sharp decline in the number of weapons
caches they are finding after big increases since 2006. "We think we are
literally running out of safe havens and strongholds and starting to run out of
these areas where there were these very significant caches," Petraeus
said.
(Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
Petraeus sees increasingly durable gains in Iraq - Source